Neutrality just stays execution, assuming it can even realistically be maintained with neither side forcing the Straits issue, and siding with the Entente means getting whacked by the Russians full weight with minimal prospects of direct support. Trade can be rerouted (For example, to/from Russia or more likely the Balkan States), the short term costs more than made up for by the abolition of the Capitulations, and they also have to consider how they're going to survive in a post-war world. Yes of course they are eager to give up most of their foreign trade and await the arrival of Russian Christmas when they will be served up for lunch.Īctively siding with the Enente is the idiot box move, while neutrality is just as you said waiting for Russian dessert time. No one can for certain predict the outcome but contrary to what a lot of posters above seem to believe it will be a long drawn out fight. In the long run the Entente have the resources of the World but the problem of the besieger in that they must attack a fortified position. The Russians cannot do much given their terrain constrictions except try and occupy the Turks.or not if the League aim is to keep a the fourth emperor (aka the Sultan) neutral. Once the logistic realities bite the war becomes the familiar brutal slog. The Germans cannot send more troops against France without magically building more roads in France. That said the Young Turks modernisation policy was all over the place so all bets are off.Īs for the war.it is again likely to become a massive stalemate. While Germany offered goodies and inveigled for influence over the Ottomans you need to ask yourself who is their main threat and where does most of their trade go? The Ottomans might be slow to be drawn in, neutrality is quite smart for them but they have a goodly self-interest in leaning Entente. Well then you may well think more clearly when tired. ![]() What does Germany do with a defeated France? Austria is left in what state- will Russia still be ripe for revolution, and if not then, when? Or at all? How does attaque a l'outrance change- do they have any truly defensive strategy, does the overwhelmingly offensive prewar doctrine adapt to circumstance? How much re- equipping and rearming would they need, and is there time? Can Crimean War Part II draw enough off the central powers' main effort to matter? (expectation no.) It becomes actually interesting when you assume there is some diplomatic lead time how do the Entente react? What do they do instead? Without having to cover their backs- if they can actually trust the Russians not to backstab them- they do have enough of an advantage to crush the French. The German army's chief problems become logistic, they have the numbers of men and guns to meet the French head on, shatter them and keep up the momentum of the attack with the second echelon- Paris by D+30, wrap up and victory by D+60. No eastern front? That's the Entente completely screwed then.
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